It's to be expected. San Antonio's realty market usually runs in a predictable seasonal cycle. The lowest sales month is January, the higher sales season kicks off in March and usually peaks in June, and, after school starts in August, the market draws down in a leisurely fashion through the fall and early winter months.
But, so far, this year's cycle has hardly been typical. Home sales peaked very early - in May. The market remained highly active throughout the summer, with sales volume approaching the pre-Great Recession historic highs of 2006 and 2007. Now, in October, homes sales are trending downward on a scale more characteristic of a typical off season San Antonio market.
A recent survey of San antonio realty agents revealed some interesting observations about the future of the area's near term housing market. Many agents saw a slowing trend caused by buyer concerns about rising mortgage interest rates, increasingly stringent loan qualification requirements and continuing concerns about the slowness of the nation's economic recovery.
Other agents were much more optomistic, citing the strength of San antonio's economy, increased demand from buyers exiting the area's rental market, and a rush by buyers to purchase a home before rising mortgage interest rates hit 5% .
Setting aside local concerns, respected state and national level realty analysts are confident that, barring unforeseen factors, San Antonio's realty market will breeze through the expected seasonal cool-down and come back even stronger in the spring.
Why?
The area's job growth is excellent.
Its unemployment rate is relatively low.
San Antonio/Bexar County is first in the state and fourth in the nation for the largest net inflow of households — a total of 5,601 families in 2012.
Recognizing that San Antonio is one of the nation's top 25 cities for global trade, many corporations are relocating their operations and/or headquarters to San Antonio.
Just south of the city, the developing Eagle Ford shale oil fields are fueling an economic boom.
The Alamo City's financial, service sector, military, bioscience, and medical establishments are strong and fully capable of providing the stable economic environment needed to encourage and sustain small and large business development.
So, what does this mean for San Antonio home sellers and buyers? Looking at the relevant market statistics for single family detached homes as of 7 October 2012:
There were 8792 active listings, compared to 9686 one year ago. The inventory is decreasing slowly. That's a good sign for home sellers.
The average sales price for the most recent closings was $207,484, compared to last year's $193,643. The 7.15% sales price increase is a significantly positive sign for home sellers.
Average cumulate-days-on-the-market (CDOM) for the most recent sales was 92 compared to 111 last year. That's another positive sign for San Antonio home sellers.
Industry analysts see these data as reflecting a strong sellers' market.
Although exceptionally positive for home sellers, the news is also good for home buyers because San Antonio homes remain remarkably affordable when compared to homes in the nation's other large metropolitan areas.
That's our October 2013 San Antonio realty market report. We encourage reader questions, comments, and suggestions for making this monthly report more relevant and informative.
Wishing you a happy halloween and a wonderful October 2013, we are Stephanie and Randy Kelley, Realtors ® at Keller Williams Legacy, San Antonio. If you have questions, need San Antonio area realty or mortgage advice or assistance, or just want to chat, call (210) 863-2661 or (210) 867-8743. Our SanAntonioHomeQuest.com Realty Solutions Team is always ready to help you with your home buying or selling needs.
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